Last Updated on 2026 年 4 月 1 日 by 総合編集組
Strait of Hormuz Blockade 2026: Brent Crude Up 64.8%, LNG Spot Prices Surge 140% – Global Energy and Economic Impacts Explained
The ongoing situation in the Strait of Hormuz has created significant challenges for global energy markets. As of April 1, 2026, commercial shipping through this critical waterway has dropped sharply to around 8 vessels per day, representing a 94.8% decline from pre-crisis levels of 153 vessels daily. This narrow passage normally carries approximately 20-25% of the world’s seaborne oil and nearly 20% of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Current Shipping Data and Traffic Changes Satellite and Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking show a dramatic reduction in traffic following recent events. From February 23-27, daily average was 153 ships. By March 2, it fell to 13 ships (-91.5%), and during the peak crisis in mid-March, only 5-8 ships passed daily. Even attempts by major trading partners to secure special arrangements have seen limited success, with many vessels choosing to disable AIS for safer transit. Dozens of ships remain stranded inside the Persian Gulf.
Energy Price Movements and Market Sentiment Energy prices have decoupled from pure supply-demand fundamentals and are now heavily influenced by geopolitical developments. Brent Crude currently trades at $105.48 per barrel, up 64.8% from pre-crisis levels around $64. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stands at $102.74 per barrel (+77.1%). Jet fuel has risen to $3.93 per gallon (+57.2%), while Asian LNG spot prices have increased by 140%. Average U.S. retail gasoline reached $4.02 per gallon (+38.6%).
Market reactions remain volatile. Short-term statements from political leaders about potential de-escalation have caused temporary pullbacks, yet structural damage to infrastructure and production adjustments suggest that full market recovery could take months or longer even if shipping resumes.
Asia-Pacific Region: The Most Affected Area Asia receives about 80% of the oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz, making it the hardest-hit region.
Japan, which imports over 90% of its oil from the Middle East via this route, has released a record volume of national oil reserves — equivalent to 45 days of demand, approximately 80 million barrels. This is the largest such release since the system was established in the 1970s. The government aims to use lower-cost reserves to stabilize domestic prices and prevent industrial shutdowns. Public concerns have led to some panic buying of daily necessities, prompting authorities to urge calm and avoid hoarding.
South Korea has implemented direct intervention measures, including a fuel price cap enforced on refiners and retailers. The government also activated a strategic reserve swap program, lending about 20 million barrels of crude to major domestic refiners to cover an estimated 50-day supply gap. Major airlines have shifted to emergency cost-control mode, reducing international flights.
Taiwan faces unique vulnerabilities due to limited LNG storage, currently sufficient for only about 11 days. While emergency procurement has secured supplies through April, prolonged disruption into the summer peak electricity demand season could require rationing. The crisis has also disrupted global helium supply chains critical for semiconductor wafer manufacturing, raising costs and creating uncertainty for Taiwan’s tech sector. Policymakers are re-evaluating energy strategies, including possible reactivation of decommissioned nuclear units under strict safety conditions.
South and Southeast Asia: From Daily Life to Food Security Risks Developing economies with lower resilience are experiencing broader ripple effects. India relies on the Persian Gulf for about 60% of its oil and over half its natural gas. More than 330 million households depend on imported LPG for cooking, with 90% of those imports routed through the Strait. Shortages have appeared in several states, affecting even traditional funeral practices. Fertilizer imports (urea and ammonia) have been disrupted during key planting seasons, threatening grain output later in 2026 and potentially causing economic welfare losses equivalent to 1.78% of GDP.
The Philippines has declared a national energy emergency, with reserves down to about 45 days. Public sector workers are shifting to four-day workweeks to conserve fuel. Thailand’s reduction in fuel re-exports has led to over 1,000 of Laos’ 2,538 gasoline stations temporarily closing, highlighting how regional supply networks amplify local impacts.
Europe and the United States: Inflation Pressures and Policy Dilemmas Even as a net oil exporter, the U.S. feels the effects through global pricing. National average gasoline prices have exceeded $4 per gallon, with some California areas reaching $8-9 due to additional taxes and regulations. The Federal Reserve faces delayed rate-cut expectations amid renewed core inflation risks. U.S. Postal Service will introduce an 8% fuel surcharge on packages starting April 26, directly affecting delivery costs.
In the UK, filling a typical family diesel car now costs over £100. Retail groups warn of further food price increases in Q2. The Eurozone is monitoring stagflation risks, with the European Central Bank revising inflation forecasts upward and growth expectations downward. Germany and Italy, with high industrial energy dependence, face particular caution.
Aviation and Global Logistics Disruptions Over 23,000 flights originally scheduled to or through the Middle East have been canceled since late February. Major hubs like Dubai and Doha operate at minimal humanitarian levels. Rerouting via Russia, Central Asia, or Africa increases fuel burn by 20-30%, pushing Asia-Europe ticket prices up significantly. Several airlines have warned of potential financial strain if extreme oil price scenarios materialize.
For maritime shipping, vessels are diverting around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-15 days to Asia-Europe voyages and over $1 million in extra fuel per trip. War-risk insurance premiums in the Persian Gulf have risen more than 50%, with many insurers halting coverage entirely.
International Response: IEA Strategic Reserve Release IEA member countries agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves. However, mathematical modeling shows limitations. Daily disruption is estimated at 20 million barrels. Over a 120-day release period, daily supply from reserves averages about 3.33 million barrels, covering roughly 16.65% of the gap. The remaining shortfall must be balanced through price-driven demand reduction.
Outlook and Key Takeaways This crisis tests global economic resilience beyond immediate military issues. Governments have responded with large-scale reserve releases, price controls, and policy shifts. Structural inflation risks, supply chain reorganization needs (especially in semiconductors, agriculture, and aviation), and potential social pressures in more vulnerable regions remain important monitoring points.
Diversification of energy sources and strengthened supply chain resilience appear as long-term priorities. Readers should consult official sources for the latest developments, as the situation evolves rapidly.
