Last Updated on 2025 年 12 月 24 日 by 総合編集組
Why Taiwan’s F-16V Fleet Urgently Needs the Auto-GCAS System: Analysis of Demand and Implementation Delays
Introduction Taiwan’s Air Force (ROCAF) is undergoing its most significant modernization in decades through the “Peace Phoenix Rising” program, upgrading 141 F-16 A/B aircraft to the advanced F-16V (Block 20) standard, while also procuring 66 new F-16 Block 70 fighters. This will make Taiwan one of the largest F-16V operators outside the United States. However, the increased operational tempo—up approximately 50% in air sorties—combined with Taiwan’s challenging mountainous terrain, has dramatically raised the risk of Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) accidents, the leading cause of non-combat fatalities in F-16 operations.
The Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System (Auto-GCAS), jointly developed by Lockheed Martin, the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), and NASA, represents a proven life-saving technology that automatically prevents aircraft from crashing into terrain when the pilot is incapacitated.
What is Auto-GCAS and How Does It Work? Auto-GCAS integrates real-time GPS navigation, aircraft state data, and a high-resolution Digital Terrain Elevation Database (DTED) to continuously calculate the aircraft’s position relative to the ground. Unlike traditional ground proximity warning systems that only issue alerts, Auto-GCAS predicts the point of no return (approximately 1.5 seconds before impact) and, if the pilot does not respond, automatically initiates a recovery maneuver to pull the aircraft to safety before returning control.
Since its deployment on U.S. Air Force F-16 Block 40/50 aircraft in late 2014, Auto-GCAS has achieved a remarkable 98% success rate in preventing CFIT accidents, saving at least 13 pilots and 12 aircraft by mid-2022. The system is also being integrated into the F-35 fleet, with projections to prevent over 26 ground collisions during its service life.
Why Taiwan Needs Auto-GCAS More Than Ever CFIT accounts for an estimated 75% of fatal F-16 accidents. Key contributing factors include high-G induced loss of consciousness (G-LOC), spatial disorientation, target fixation, and task saturation during high-tempo operations. In Taiwan, these risks are amplified by the island’s rugged central mountain range and complex eastern terrain, especially during low-level tactical training or simulated ground-attack missions.
The 2022 crash of an F-16V during a low-altitude bombing run highlighted the persistent danger. Taiwan’s pilots operate under intense pressure, with sortie rates significantly higher than in peacetime, making an autonomous backup system essential for preserving both valuable airframes and irreplaceable human pilots.
Technical Challenges Delaying Implementation Taiwan included Auto-GCAS in its 2020 Foreign Military Sales (FMS) Letter of Offer and Acceptance (LOA). However, integrating the system into the upgraded F-16V fleet has proven far more complex than anticipated.
The original F-16 A/B aircraft used analog flight control signals, while the F-16V features a fully digital architecture with a Modular Mission Computer (MMC) and Digital Flight Control Computer (DFLCC). Auto-GCAS requires deep integration into the highest safety-critical flight control software, which can only be performed by Lockheed Martin in the U.S., followed by rigorous laboratory and flight testing.
Originally scheduled for installation starting in November 2023, the timeline has slipped. Current estimates indicate final testing in Taiwan may begin in 2026, with full fleet integration targeted for 2027. The new Block 70 aircraft will have Auto-GCAS installed from the production line.
External Factors Contributing to Delays The delays extend beyond technical hurdles. Global military supply chain disruptions—exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict—have strained Lockheed Martin’s production capacity. The company has implemented 20-hour daily shifts to accelerate output, yet the 66 new Block 70 aircraft, originally slated for full delivery by late 2026, are now expected between 2027 and 2028.
Geopolitical prioritization further complicates matters. The U.S. has diverted resources to support Ukraine and NATO allies, placing Taiwan’s orders lower on the priority list. Additionally, the high-precision DTED database required for Auto-GCAS is subject to strict International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) controls, and its tailoring for Taiwan’s sensitive operational environment involves additional policy reviews and encryption processes.
Pilot Acceptance and Training Considerations U.S. Air Force surveys show that pilots have grown to trust Auto-GCAS due to its proven life-saving record. However, less experienced pilots may develop over-reliance, potentially leading to complacency. Robust training programs will be essential to ensure pilots maintain situational awareness and manual recovery skills even with the system in place.
Strategic Costs of Delay and Mitigation Measures The prolonged absence of Auto-GCAS creates a capability gap during a period of heightened cross-strait tension. Every non-combat loss of an aircraft or pilot represents a significant blow to long-term deterrence.
In the interim, ROCAF can strengthen G-LOC prevention training, enhance situational awareness in mountainous terrain, ensure optimal use of existing Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning Systems (EGPWS/HTAWS), and maintain close oversight of U.S. progress through regular meetings with the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) and Lockheed Martin. Taiwan has also included compensation clauses in contracts to address non-force majeure delays.
Long-Term Vision: Toward Greater Defense Industrial Autonomy The F-16V experience underscores Taiwan’s dependence on foreign supply chains for advanced systems. Drawing lessons from South Korea (KAI) and Japan (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries), Taiwan should pursue greater localization through authorized production, maintenance, and technology transfer, with the Aerospace Industrial Development Corporation (AIDC) playing a central role.
Conclusion Auto-GCAS is not merely a safety feature—it is a strategic asset for preserving combat power under extreme operational stress. While technical, industrial, and geopolitical challenges have delayed its deployment, Taiwan’s determination to equip its F-16V fleet with this life-saving technology remains unwavering. Accelerating integration will enhance both flight safety and overall deterrence posture in an increasingly challenging security environment.
