Last Updated on 2025 年 11 月 22 日 by 総合編集組
Rocket Lab (RKLB) 2025: From 18 Perfect Launches to $9B+ Valuation – The Next SpaceX Killer?
2025 has been a historic year for Rocket Lab (Nasdaq: RKLB). With 18 orbital Electron launches, a 100% success rate, nearly $1 billion in backlog, and stock surging up to 735% in 12 months, the New Zealand-born company founded by Sir Peter Beck has cemented itself as the world’s most reliable small-lift provider and is now charging into the medium-lift reusable era with Neutron.
The Peter Beck Legend: Self-Taught Genius Turned Knight Sir Peter Beck, knighted in 2024, started by modifying Mini cars and building rocket-powered bicycles in his garage. With zero formal aerospace degree, he founded Rocket Lab in 2006 and achieved the Southern Hemisphere’s first private orbital launch in 2018. His obsession with “first-flight success” over speed has become the company’s ultimate moat.
Electron Rocket: The Undisputed King of SmallSat Launch In 2025, Electron broke its own annual record with 18 successful missions – including two launches from opposite sides of Earth within 48 hours. Priced at ~$7.5M per dedicated ride, Electron carries 300 kg to LEO at ~$19,039/kg – far more expensive than SpaceX rideshare, but customers pay gladly for schedule certainty and precise orbital insertion. The HASTE hypersonic variant has also flown three classified U.S. DoD missions this year.
Neutron: The 2026 Game-Changer Originally planned for 2025, Neutron’s debut has been deliberately delayed to mid-2026 to ensure flawless first flight – a classic Beck move. The 43-meter, 7-meter-diameter carbon-composite rocket will loft 13,000 kg to LEO with full reusability:
- Return-to-launch-site first stage
- Revolutionary “captive” reusable fairing
- Archimedes oxygen-methane engines (daily testing at NASA Stennis)
- 400-ft “Return on Investment” landing barge
Once operational, Neutron will compete directly with Falcon 9 on constellation deployments and national security contracts.
Photon Spacecraft & Deep Space Ambition Photon has evolved from a kick stage into a full satellite bus powered by HyperCurie high-energy engines. Achievements include NASA’s 2022 CAPSTONE Moon mission and the upcoming 2025/2026 private Venus Life Finder mission – proving low-cost interplanetary exploration is possible with small rockets.
Geost Acquisition: Completing the End-to-End Stack In August 2025, Rocket Lab closed its acquisition of Geost, adding high-performance EO/IR payload production. Now a true prime contractor: launch (Electron/Neutron) + spacecraft (Photon) + sensors (Geost) – perfectly positioned for SDA and missile-warning constellations.
Financial Snapshot (Q3 2025)
- Revenue: $155.08M (+48% YoY), new quarterly record
- LTM revenue growth: 65%
- Backlog: approaching $1 billion
- Operating loss: $59M (Neutron R&D heavy)
- Forward P/S: 26.45× (vs industry ~10×) – market pricing in massive future growth
Community Consensus Across r/RKLB, space forums, and professional circles, the verdict is unanimous: reliability is Rocket Lab’s ultimate moat. While competitors like Astra went bankrupt and others struggle with failures, Electron’s perfect 2025 record commands premium pricing from risk-averse government and commercial clients.
Risks vs Rewards Biggest risk: any significant Neutron delay or failure could hammer cash burn and valuation. Biggest reward: successful Neutron commercialization turns Rocket Lab from “expensive small rocket” into “reusable medium-lift disruptor” – potentially justifying today’s sky-high multiples and delivering 5–10× returns over the decade.
Conclusion Rocket Lab is no longer just a launch company – it’s building a vertically integrated space powerhouse. With Electron dominance secured, Neutron on the horizon, and full-stack national security capabilities via Photon + Geost, RKLB sits at the heart of the next space economy boom. For long-term believers willing to stomach development risks, this may be the highest-conviction space stock outside SpaceX itself.
Disclaimer: This is educational content only, not investment advice. Always refer to official Rocket Lab filings and announcements.
